Chapter 16 · Part Five
A worked trade, start to finish
One session, every decision, in order.
About 8 minutes
This ties the whole model together. The same setup as Chapter 6, walked through as a sequence of decisions rather than a diagram.
Tap the numbers
1. The draw
Before the session, find the untaken liquidity on the higher timeframe: a previous day high, a weekly high, equal highs. Two groups have orders resting above it, shorts with their stops and breakout traders waiting to buy the break, and both of those are buys. That is why price is drawn there. Mark it and leave it. This is where price is heading first, and it is not where you take profit.
Stage
Pre-session, 2H
- What I saw
- Untaken buy-side at 20104. Price in premium. Order flow topping out.
- What I did
- Wrote BIAS = BEAR. Marked 20104 as the draw and the sell-side below as the target.
Stage
8:30 – 9:00
- What I saw
- Price grinding up toward the level, nothing confirmed.
- What I did
- Watched. The manipulation window can be traded, but nothing had swept yet, so there was nothing to trade.
Stage
The sweep
- What I saw
- Wick to 20126, closes back at 20101, under the level.
- What I did
- Sweep confirmed. Now the model can be applied. Started watching for structure.
Stage
Structure
- What I saw
- A low forms at 20074.
- What I did
- Marked the neckline. No trade until this breaks.
Stage
Displacement
- What I saw
- Big-bodied candle straight through 20074 down to 20058.
- What I did
- MSS confirmed. Marked the FVG left behind, 20070 to 20084.
Stage
The measure
- What I saw
- Entry around 20072, stop 20130, target 19920.
- What I did
- 58 points of risk, 152 to target. 2.6R. Takeable, but the gap was not filled yet and the deeper retrace was still on the table, so I waited.
Stage
Entry
- What I saw
- Price retraces to 20080, taps the gap, rejects.
- What I did
- Entered at fair value. Stop at 20130, beyond the swept wick, so 50 points of risk and 3.2R to target. Sized so those 50 points equalled my fixed dollar risk, which meant MNQ, not NQ.
Stage
Management
- What I saw
- Price clears the first internal level.
- What I did
- Moved the stop to BE plus two. Nothing taken off. Kept moving the stop down behind structure as further levels cleared.
Stage
Exit
- What I saw
- Sell-side at 19920 delivered.
- What I did
- Full position closed at the opposite ERL. 3.2R on the trade.
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